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« Ambimouseterous | Main | Technology Predictions For 2009 »

December 15, 2008

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Cem Sertoglu

Interesting. And the possibilities are not limited to just language analytics. There's quite a bit of work in determining emotions (as well as stress levels, etc.) in speech. (see http://courses.media.mit.edu/2004spring/mas630/04.projects/zeynep_ron/) If we had audio clips of Madoff, could a machine tell that he has lying? I'd love to put this up agains political rhetoric. Remember weapons of mass destruction in Iraq? :)

Me

I believe the main problem is very far from detecting lies. We may be able to detect lies perfectly one day, but i'm not sure that will be a solution. The main problem is very simple : to be able to predict the right thing for us, or even more simply, to predict that something will be good/useful/profitable or bad for us. This financial crisis seems to be much bigger than a total of few schemes. Using Cem's example; the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq may or may not be true (even though they couldn't find any, it doesn't mean there wasn't any), but did saying they exist and making the operation help? From the liberated (at least, from Saddam) Iraqis point of view, it helped. From the army's point of view, they did found some bad guys over there, so it helped. But financially, billions of dollars, which could be very useful to help the economy and fund the officials to find the schemers (the funds were cut down after 2001 for these departments), were spent, so it didn't help. And a good economy indeed would be helpful to catch the bad guys, so it didn't help. Such dilemmas exist for the economy. Although there are some mathematical analysis such as game theory to help, there aren't any exact solutions, and you can't use data before creating the algorithm.

baris

Excellent points. If I read you right, you are saying that if you don't know what's right for you, what good is it to know who is lying. True.

But if you flip that around, wouldn't it be good to know what is a lie and what isn't to help you figure out what's right?

marty

I think it was Malcolm Gladwell who also argued that Asian languages are more suitable for children to learn the numbers quicker (i.e. not only are numbers very short and mono-syllabic sounds, but also all you need to learn as a child is around ten numbers/words and the rest is adding them up; for instance seventy-four is seven tens and four, or fifteen is one ten and five, etc), effectively making them better at math at younger ages than their English speaking peers worldwide.

marty

A quick response to the Iraqi comment: for the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis that were killed since the US-led invasion in 2003 (some estimates go above one million people), it definitely didn't help.

Me

I agree that it would be good to know what is a lie, but it will only marginally help us figure out what's right, because everybody lies even if it's good for all. The art of persuasion is almost identical to lying, and it has to be. People don't want change, and we already established that we don't even know what's right for us. So if you have an idea of a good thing (it can be good for just you or everyone), you have to lie and this is probably why English is probably the language most suited for deception. You can see examples of this everywhere: from detergent ads claiming it provides "whiter than white", to politicians. Most people believe Ataturk deceived people into founding a republic and secularism. If it was deception, it was a necessary one and it would be bad if people found out it was a lie. On the other hand, Hitler believed in what he was saying, so he wasn't even lying. Therefore even if you do have the best detergent (killing all the bacteria), you may have to lie.(and offer "whiter than white") In such conditions, detecting lies can hardly help.

Baris Aksoy

I recently came across a really interesting book on this topic: Numerati by Stephen Baker. It discusses building predictive mathematical models of people, privacy issues, and bunch of other thought proving topics.

Another application of such detection technologies is currently being used in brand monitoring for companies and agencies. There are bunch of innovative companies working on sentiment extraction, etc. using complex semantic based algorithms.

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Ain't no one better to do that then Google.

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I know that Google has the means and ways to do it.

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There is no one more capable of doing that then Google.

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The Gov. already have their hand in Google's cookie jar by now.

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I think in general online marketing can. I heard Vanessa Summers is giving a workshop in Los Angeles. Great for small businesses. http://theonlineevent.com has more info

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Another topic I did not mention above was Franchises using the internet to great more jobs. Using Social Media Marketing Franchises can create a awareness for their products.

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Google is heading in right direction because its main objective is always the user. They may be earning huge profits but it is their principle that first preference is always to the client. Cheers GOOGLE..Go Ahead....

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Why are you beautiful? It sounds like the asker doubts that beauty is really there. The real dilemma is beauty is in the eye of the beholder. We can project an image of what we think as beauty, and for a man that is a real mindbender, but I know it when I see it. It is more than physical exaggeration of various body parts. There is grace, candor, and giving qualities to beauty. It’s like the tree in the forest bit. Is there a sound, if no one is there to hear it? I never give any thought to my own “beauty”, but it is a part of my life. I am a beauty judge. Everyone I see gets the eye. There is a computer value being tallied up, especially with seeing a woman. It’s God’s gift to men – and I thank Him for that. It may be the basic reason mankind ever pursued mathematics in the first place. When you see it, you want to melt.

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Get informed. The Feds staged the financial crisis to crash the dollar, crash the economy, to bring in one-world-government under a tyrannical Elite.

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I think google have the man power and ability to overcome such crisis.. and its quite good with technology and business analysis..

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