Long Bets

Ever since the AlwaysOn Conference, I've been meaning to write about The Long Bets Foundation.  It's a fantastic organization that has brought together some of the brightest people on the planet to make predictions about the future.  Not only does one need to explain the basis of their prediction, they also have to put their money where their mouths are and pay to post a prediction and be prepared to take a bet if somebody decides to challenge. 

Some highly recognizable, and off the charts smart, people such as Nathan Myhrvold, Eric Schmidt, Vint Cerf, Gordon Bell, Ray Kurzweil, and Freeman Dyson are on the site with their predictions

Freeman Dyson, probably the most notable of the group, has a very interesting and creative predictions.  I humbly cut and paste it here.

Bet 30: The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.

Here is his explanation: If extraterrestrial life exists, it might have adapted to living in vacuum and spread widely over cold regions far from the sun. If so, it must grow optical concentrators, lenses or mirrors, to focus sunlight and keep itself warm. The concentrators will reflect sunlight in a narrow beam back toward the sun. If we point our telescopes directly away from the sun, we might see life as bright reflecting points, like the eyes of animals caught in headlights. 

I finally gathered the courage to put a prediction myself.  A few months ago I wrote about how the internet would change male female relationships.  Well, now I am putting money on that prediction on Long Bets.  You can find it here, and I challenge you to bet against it.

Comments

[Emre Sokullu]

I can't agree with you on your argument but I've found the site very interesting and wanted to post a very old idea of mine. Please check it out: http://www.longbets.org/262; I wonder if you agree or not :)

[baris]

Emre,
Very intersting, I had this idea a long time ago as well. So now that you freed humans from the need to find food, can you find a way to free humans from the need to breathe air?

[Emre Sokullu]

Yes this will be my next challenge; but I leave it for now because first of all, I need to find a way to free myself from the heavy duties of my daily life :) Thanx!

[Alena]

I will continue to visit enjoyed the reading thanks

[baris]

Alena,
I am happy you liked it. I can't reach rutt.com by the way.

[Sunil Tagare]

Hey Baris. It's scary how right you were with your prediction that by 2036, atleast one man will father 150 kids. Last night on 60 Minutes, they were talking about how single women were going in droves to sperm banks to get pregnant. The most eligible sperm donors were in big demand and now there are tens of families with half-brothers and half-sisters running around. One guy already has 20 kids that he knows of.

So you get a A+ in my books on this prediction. In fact, its happening sooner than you predicted.

So maybe you should try out a few more predictions. I'll be watching.

[Sunil Tagare]

Here is a link for the article that proves your prediction: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/03/17/60minutes/main1414965.shtml

[Larry Chiang]

This is my vote: the more things change, the more they stay the same. I went to AO 06 and I kept thinking that history repeats