"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." - TJ Watson, IBM
This is a famous misquote attributed to T.J. Watson, IBM's president at the time, misjudging the potential of the PC market. As the story goes, IBM which invented the PC, didn't see the vision as to how big it could become and let others, especially Microsoft, get the lion's share of the value creation. But maybe, TJ Watson did have the vision right and there is really a need for only 5 computers. My friend Ray Conley, made a good case over lunch one day that the statement could indeed be true if you think of the computer in the cloud sense. Could there really be only five computer "clouds" you need to do everything you want? The answer is yes, and Google, Amazon, Salesforce.com, Akamai and one of Sun Microsystems or VMWare is all you need.
The first computer you need is Google. They represents all the consumer apps one needs. It doesn't have to be Google but it has to be a site like them. All your email, social networking, sharing, blogging can be done by them. Google specifically, has the means to offer you any of the apps you want on line, thus they are the most likely candidate to own this cloud. Incidentally, Facebook can do all these apps but search. A 2008 prediction could be that they actually do something big on the search feature, but I digress.
The second computer you need is Amazon. Not for their ecommerce solutions but for their web services, that I compared to semiconductor fabs on Venturebeat. They represent the consumer infrastructure cloud. Any consumer internet app needs to be hosted somewhere before they can be sent to the consumer, whether it be on Google or Facebook. Very few companies have the ability to build a big, global data center, and Amazon has one you can use, and pay by the byte. They are a good pick to win this cloud.
Between Google and Amazon, the consumer apps and the consumer infrastrucure are covered. Now lets look at the enterprise side. After all, anybody in front of a PC looks either like an employee or a consumer.
The third computer therefore is Salesforce.com. Just as Google gives you your consumer apps, Salesforce gives you your enterprise apps. Their cloud takes care of all the things you need to get your job done. And just like Google, they are open to 3rd parties who will develop on their platform.
The fourth computer, you guessed it, is the one that enables the enterprise infrastructure, it controls your servers, storage etc. The winner here is nebulous. Sun Microsystems definitely has products and solutions here on the backend infrastrcutre, and VMWare is doing that for the servers in the front end. One of the two win. You take your pick, I am leaning towards VMWare, but there is a good case for Sun.
The final computer, is the one that gets all the bits to you. That's the cloud that has the intelligence to move things around. None of the other four work without it. It's a CDN, and Akamai could be the winner to represent the fifth computer.
There you have it. If these companies could completely dominate their spaces, and kill every competitor, you's still be fine doing what you are doing on only five clouds, Google, Amazon, Salesforce, VMWare and Akamai. That's the idea behind this post, but what's the point? Who cares?
There is a Venture Capital investment thesis here. If your company can knock out any one of these five, you have estate making potential in your hands. If your company complements this cloud, you can still do well, you ride their platform, or get bought by them. If you are trying to create a new kind of cloud, you may have a problem.
There is a public company investment thesis here too. That these five companies, call them the "TJ Watson Portfolio" are very well positioned to win in the long term. Just to show you guys I am willing to put my money where my mouth is, follow my profile on zecco.com (covestor version coming soon), and let's see if I am right in the long term.
P.S: I wrote this piece for Om Malik here. This one is the original in more raw form.
Baris,
Great post! I wonder if Salesforce, with it's recent announcement of the force.com platform will in time be able to knock a couple more of the "computers" off of your list?
It will be interesting to see how strong the force will be with this one..
Posted by: Adam Killam | November 25, 2007 at 11:13 PM
I think Amazon is 4th computer too, you can use it for anything. The layers are as follows: You - EC2 - Virtualization (mainly VMware) - Hardware (mainly Sun)
Posted by: Emre Sokullu | November 28, 2007 at 01:51 PM
Blogs are good for every one where we get lots of information for any topics nice job keep it up !!!
Posted by: digital dissertation | January 13, 2009 at 02:47 AM
Hi,
This is really a nice post, you share good piece of information. I appreciate the information, well thought out and written. Thank you
Posted by: Dissertation Writer | October 22, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Hi,
Thanks for the post; it has proven to be exactly what I needed.
Posted by: Custom Essay Writing | October 22, 2009 at 11:11 PM
Hi,
Fantastic post and wonderful blog, I really like this type of interesting articles keep it up.
Posted by: Buy Essay | October 23, 2009 at 12:09 AM
Hi,
Once again nice post, you really shared a wonderful article; Informative and useful.
Posted by: Coursework | October 23, 2009 at 03:59 AM
Hi,
This is inspiring; I am very pleased by this post. Nice work, thanks for such information.
Posted by: Custom Essay Writing | October 31, 2009 at 12:15 AM
Hi,
I personally like your post; you have shared good insights and experiences. Its sounds exciting and it will really help me a great deal.
Term Paper Writing
Posted by: Term Paper Writing | November 15, 2009 at 11:38 PM
Hello,
Excellent post, I really enjoy reading this article, thank you so much for sharing it.
Posted by: Custom Essay | December 30, 2009 at 12:28 AM
Wonderful article, thanks for putting this together! "This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided here. Keep it up!"
Posted by: Dissertation Help | January 24, 2010 at 11:46 PM
What new technology is Intel releasing for the PC market before the end of the year?
I heard that Intel has new motherboard/processor technology coming out in a few weeks. Can someone tell me basically what that new tech is and when? Any other technologies coming in the next 6 weeks or so (from Oct 30, 08)?
Posted by: Soft Cialis | January 29, 2010 at 05:48 AM
I just want to emphasize the good work on this blog, has excellent views and a clear vision of what you are looking for
Posted by: generic viagra | February 12, 2010 at 07:45 AM
It's very usefull topic and my five need is that
good internet, high software, impressive quality, usefull topic, nice downloading
thanking you
Posted by: Dissertations quality | February 20, 2010 at 11:05 PM
Thank you for thinking all of us! I really appreciate for this post.very good blog.
Thanking you
Posted by: Dissertation Help | March 17, 2010 at 10:36 PM
Hi,
This is inspiring; I am very pleased by this post. Nice work, thanks for such information.
Posted by: dissertation examples | March 19, 2010 at 04:26 AM
I'm searching for a "post-it" software that allows to create post-it
like notes that can be attached to particular windows or applications.
When the window appears the note appears, when the windows disappears
the note disappears...
Posted by: Condos For Sale in Costa Rica | April 18, 2010 at 09:36 PM
Some people live without computers at all!
Posted by: Winstrol | April 26, 2010 at 06:43 AM
the blog says things that make you think as a young one, things that are happening now and most times we see no reason not to care a bit ....
Posted by: dental health center | April 30, 2010 at 07:12 AM
http://hairy-blonde-bush.www-hairypussy.com/ http://massive-hairy-bush.www-hairypussy.com/ http://hairy-bush-teens.www-hairypussy.com/
The final computer, is the one that gets all the bits to you. That's the cloud that has the intelligence to move things around. None of the other four work without it. It's a CDN, and Akamai could be the winner to represent the fifth computer. http://hairy-vaginas.www-hairypussy.com/ http://hairy-bush-porn.www-hairypussy.com/
Posted by: hairy pussy | May 05, 2010 at 05:50 AM
Once again nice post, you really shared a wonderful article; Informative and useful.
Posted by: Term Papers | May 10, 2010 at 11:51 PM
The first computer you need is Google. They represents all the consumer apps one needs. It doesn't have to be Google but it has to be a site like them. All your email, social networking, sharing,
Posted by: bangbros | May 15, 2010 at 11:50 AM
The first computer you need is Google. They represents all the consumer apps one needs. It doesn't have to be Google but it has to be a site like them. All your email, social networking, sharing, blogging can be done by them.
Posted by: naked celebs | May 17, 2010 at 08:52 AM
The final computer, is the one that gets all the bits to you. That's the cloud that has the intelligence to move things around.
Posted by: round and brown | May 17, 2010 at 10:07 AM
out that "registration as a service" scales. But, noone on a national scale has figured out that the "commission based advertising to attendees" and
Posted by: black porn | May 21, 2010 at 03:45 AM